ABSTRACT
Throughout1938,Britishexpertswaitedfortheconfinnationof theirgrimpredictionsofafull-scaleaerialattackbytheLuftwaffe.Theestimateof50casualtiespertonofbombsdroppedgainedcredibilitywhenthe figuresfromtheMarch1938raidsonBarcelonawereconsidered.Afterwards,revisedstatisticsbytheAirRaidPrecautionsDepartmentfixeda higherratioof72casualties:foreachtonofbombs24personswouldbe killed,24personsseriouslyinjured,and24slightlyinjured.Oftheinjured, 36wouldrequiretreatmentinahospital.Materialdamagewouldbeconsiderable:500,000houseswouldsuffertotaldestruction,while1to2million wouldbeextensivelydamaged. 1Anticipatedmentalstrainamongcivilians alarmedofficials:areportpresentedtotheMinistryofHealthin1938estimatedthatpsychiatriccasualtieswouldsurpassphysicalcasualtiesbythree toone.2
