Modem economies do not advance at constant growth rates. Economies experience fits and starts as they move toward the distant and unknown future. Booms and busts are thought to be an inherent characteristic of capitalistic economies, and there is ample evidence that socialist economies also experience business cycles. I For a time in the 1960s in the United States, economists spoke of the demise of economic fluctuations. These discussions, as it turns out, were unwarranted.