chapter  7
13 Pages

Consensus Forecasts

The terms "consensus," "composite," and "combination" generally are used synonymously in forecasting. They refer to the practice of synthesizing two or more forecasts. Sometimes the term "consensus" carries the connotation that some amount of discussion took place and the forecast that emerged was, in some sense, agreed upon by all. This discussion-among-the-experts approach is known as the "Delphi" procedure in business forecasting. It is rarely used in economics, perhaps because economists prefer to disagree than to bow to compromise.