chapter  1
14 Pages

Introduction to Economic Forecasting

There is nothing novel about making economic projections. By 1930, Garfield Cox's book, An Appraisal of American Business Forecasts, was in its second edition. Almost seventy years later Cox's title is still apt. Before 1940, however, there was no distinction between "business" forecasts and "economic" forecasts. Even today, some professionals see no need to differentiate between the two. Yet almost everyone in the field understands that business forecasting primarily appertains to predictions about the performance of individual firms or industries. Economic forecasting, on the other hand, is associated with making predictions about the economy of a region or of the entire nation. The distinction between the two types of forecasting is not crisp because they share some of the same techniques. One often finds the same persons and establishments practicing in both fields.