ABSTRACT
The collapse of the Soviet Union and the pattern of subsequent state relations in Eurasia poses daunting challenges to theorists and policymakers alike. Despite the high visibility of its internal problems, the end of the Soviet empire came as a surprise. Unlike other modern continental empires—such as the German, the Austrian, and Ottoman—the Soviet empire collapsed without overt defeat in war. Consequently, few scholars were able to foresee either the end of the Cold War or the disintegration of the USSR. Fewer still anticipated the tempo at which these processes unfolded. 1 But not only is the demise of the USSR befuddling: the future of this area is equally nebulous. Should one expect reconstitution of empire, given the virulent rhetoric emanating from Moscow and the power disparities in the region? Or should one expect a more benign set of international relations, premised either on cooperation or disengagement? This chapter begins an evaluation of theories that might enable informed speculation on the region’s future. I start with a taxonomy of possible outcomes and policy choices. I then review what the existing theories of empire and integration would predict. Two dominant theories of international relations—neorealism and neoliberalism—profess to have considerable theoretical power in explaining whether states will form cooperative relations even to the point of political integration. What insights may be gleaned from them? The chapter then briefly reviews the developments in the Former Soviet Union (FSU) since 1991 and examines to what extent prevalent theories can explain the unfolding of these events. Finally, I review the prospects for neo-imperial and nonimperial outcomes based on the causal variables of theories explaining empire and integration.
