ABSTRACT

The question of whether the United States had vital interests-ones on which Americans would spend much blood and treasure and undertake protracted obli­ gations-in Central Asia was debatable, and debated, until recently. My own as­ sessment was that, for several reasons, we did not. With deep and longstanding strategic commitments in other regions (Europe, Northeast Asia, the Persian Gulf) the opportunity costs of assuming additional ones were high for the United States. Most Americans knew little and cared less about Central Asia and remain wary of strategic choices that yield swamps that are hard to emerge from. Assuming big commitments in Central Asia, a new and unfamiliar theater with poor infrastruc­ ture to support operations, would also have required spending sizable sums of money, and for purposes that were hardly clear. Together, these considerations seemed to rule out deep U.S. engagement in Central Asia-until recently.