ABSTRACT
This chapter examines factors in the escalation of two types of crises: the willful instigation or manipulation of crisis by the North Korean leadership for potential gain in the context of a negotiation, and the potential consequences of unexpected crises in North Korea, which may or may not be beyond the control of all parties concerned, in the North Korean case. It explores the effects of one common factor in both types of crisis: the effects of high uncertainty in analytical understanding of North Korea's intentions and stability. The chapter discusses specific issues like soft landing versus collapse, food crisis and managing US-South Korean relations where crises continue to pose difficult choices for US policymakers. The nature of US-South Korean consultation to manage periods of crisis on the Korean peninsula in the coming years will be the major determinant in shaping the nature and will form the basis for a continuing relationship consistent with national interests in the post-reunification era.
