ABSTRACT
This chapter constructs a baseline for projecting several futuribles scenarios by delineating the temporal scope, the nature of the post Kim Il Sung system, and the meaning, type, and direction of change as well as the key variables involved in some scenarios. It suggests why prediction in social science is so difficult yet so important and necessary. The chapter analyzes system-maintaining, system-reforming, and system-decaying scenarios in terms of the initial assumptions and concomitant policies. The system-maintaining scenario envisions a high degree of continuity with the recent past, with the Kim Jong Il regime commanding firm control of ideology and policy. Under system-reforming scenario North Korea would follow the post-Mao Chinese model of gradual but extensive reform and opening to the global political economy. The chapter then assesses the policy implications as well as the relative desirability and feasibility of the scenarios in terms of securing a long peace on the Korean peninsula.
