ABSTRACT
This chapter analyzes traditional military security considerations in the Southern Tier, principally on an inter-state level. It assesses Russian security interests in the Southern Tier and then those of the Caucasus states and CIS Central Asian states. Rivalries and potential confrontations of other major states with interests in the regions, specifically Turkey, Iran, China, and the United States, are outlined. Alliance and quasi-alliance relationships are reviewed. Specific threats and potential conflicts are then analyzed: Islamic extremism, conflicts in Tajikistan, Afghanistan, and the North Caucasus, and conflicts with regional powers. Finally, the Russian effort to maintain a forward security zone in Central Asia and the Caucasus is evaluated. Military security interests have historically dominated the Russian and Soviet approach to the Caucasus region and continue to do so in the changed circumstances of the end of the 1990s. The chapter concludes a brief strategic evaluation of the overall prospects for the region and highlights certain key policy challenges and options ahead.
