Getting to the Future: The Security Process
Bosnia is our present and our likely future in the pattern o f conflict in the contemporary international system. The source o f violence was primarily internal (at least within the former Yugoslavia-as opposed to the present Yugoslavia consisting o f Serbia and Montenegro). The basis of violence was intercommunal, with community in this case ethnically and religiously defined. The structure o f violence was more like interstate war than civil war, in the sense that the calculus of positive appeal to a common center o f gravity was almost entirely missing. Moreover, the “military” aspect hardly ever involved organ ized “armies” confronting and fighting one another in anything resem bling battle. Rather, semidisciplined militias attacked civilian enclaves o f other groups, either to displace or slaughter them or both. It is no surprise that, along with Rwanda, the Bosnian conflict spawned a drive for a permanent war crimes tribunal. The offshoot conflict building in Kosovo mirrors those characteristics.