Is there a Link Between Primary Competition and General Election Results?

This chapter explores the relationship between general election voting patterns and competition in congressional primaries. It shows that challenger primary competition is highly sensitive to the expected competitiveness of the general election; and incumbent primaries are more competitive within the party that expects to gain seats. The chapter explores competition at the national level, or at least at the level of aggregations of races rather than at the individual level. The fractionalization index is adept at capturing differences in competition in races where competition between multiple candidates is the norm. The relationship between primary and general election competition is much more straightforward for challenger primaries. The adoption of a particular primary type, or a change in primary type, may be driven by partisan considerations and may be aimed at insulating the dominant party from partisan waves. Exploration of congressional primary competition corroborates our assertion that reasonable expectations about general election results shape primaries.