ABSTRACT
This book is certainly not the first to compare the dissolution of the Soviet Union and Yugoslavia and offer a causal argument for the different experiences of the state collapse (Duncan and Holman 1994; Lukic and Lynch 1996; Horowitz 2005; Vujačić 2015), though it proposes a unique perspective on regional conflict dynamics on the territories of these two former states. However, before testing the central argument of this work, which establishes a nexus between ethno nationalist mobilization, regime change and conflict occurrence, this chapter will inspect what would usually be referred to as the control and confounding variables in the research design. The main aim is to account for the main points of similarity and difference within the economic, political and social spheres in the two ethnofederations before they collapsed, as well as the major theories that link these state-level factors with the occurrence of ethnic conflict. The first half of the chapter will provide economic, political and cultural comparison of the USSR and SFRY. The main motivation is to ascertain the comparative levels of development, political and institutional setup, as well as the broader identity politics in these two ethnofederations. The latter half of the chapter will assess different approaches to ethnic identity and mobilization, while linking them with the theories of conflict occurrence, especially with respect to polity transformation. These theories are organized according to their emphasis – primordial approaches focus on the inherent differences in identity, while instrumentalist approaches include elite predation, pure uncertainty and group grievances. I will argue that the instrumentalist view based on elite manipulation, uncertainty and grievances better captures causes of mobilization in the former Soviet Union and Yugoslavia. Following that, I will examine the institutional approach to ethnic conflict, based on federalism, regime change and state weaknesses. The chapter will conclude with the theoretical contributions that are most relevant for this book.
