ABSTRACT
City decline has attracted growing interest in several countries, but recent high levels of net immigration mean that few, if any, British cities are seeing absolute population decline. Even so, it is clear that some patterns of uneven growth such as the North-South ‘divide’ show a continuing importance in analysing relative decline. Census stock and flow datasets on 74 cities covering the UK’s larger cities allow some multi-dimensional analyses that can draw out key longer-term trends. Particular emphasis is put upon forms of decline likely to increase the risk of poverty. This leads to a focus on the labour market, which in turn callS for analysis by city labour market area, so changes in local job availability can be linked to change in local employment rates. A synthesis index of relative decline is developed, and a set of other variables then used to model the resulting city index scores. These analyses suggest that for robust research and monitoring of cities on issues such as relative decline, census stock and flow datasets are certainly necessary but not sufficient.
