ABSTRACT
This chapter explores the climate and natural resource elements of Syria's state fragility. From 2006 to 2012, Syria experienced one of the worst long-term droughts and most severe set of crop failures and livestock devastation in its history of records, with the period from 2009–2012 registering as the most extreme drought conditions across a number of regions. The evidence suggests that the probability of such a severe-to-extreme drought period from 2006–2012 increased as a result of anthropogenic climate change. Less attention has been paid, however, to significant agricultural, pastoral, environmental and climatic changes in Syria. Combined with the mismanagement of water and food resources by the al-Assad regime, which between 2007 and 2011, these changes converged to precipitate a severe humanitarian crisis. Assessment on Global Water Security notes that 'by 2025, ISciences projects that water stress increases significantly in many locations throughout the world, including North Africa, the Middle East, and Asia'.
