ABSTRACT
This chapter considers how intelligence is collected and used, and what expectations can be attached to the patterns of information with regard to prediction. The analysis of the bombings in London on 7 July 2005 has suggested that there was a failure to make use of intelligence that, with hindsight, seems to indicate clearly the involvement of those actively involved in terrorist activities. One of the significant concerns about the work of intelligence agencies is with regard to their ability to process effectively available information to predict accurately intent and actions of terrorist organisations. The intelligence services need to transfer their knowledge to other groups and this multi-agency collaboration is used to create policy and justify actions. In particular, the core issue is how the human decision maker responds psychologically to uncertainty and the manner in which they justify their actions with regard to incomplete information.
