ABSTRACT
This chapter offers an outline of three scenarios of plausible future developments of the EU counterterrorism policy and a brief assessment regarding their likelihood to materialize in the foreseeable future. These include a return to the purely intergovernmental cooperation based on the TREVI model; a major supranational leap forward towards the creation of something akin to United States of Europe; and an arguable middle ground represented by the calls for, and a few specific outlines of, a new EU counterterrorism strategy. The analysis of these three scenarios is complemented by a succinct overview of the likely future changes to EU counterterrorism policy due to the eventual adoption of the Lisbon Treaty. The chapter concludes with a discussion of the emergence of “counterterrorism fatigue” in the EU.
