ABSTRACT
This chapter outlines a few of the methods commonly used in project risk management, with a brief detour into the closely related subject of reliability engineering. It deals with uncertainty in the sense that people might not have complete confidence in the data on which they have based project planning. Monte Carlo analysis bears some resemblance to PERT, in the sense that both methods seek to deal with uncertainty about how time estimates will match actual performance and both methods start out by requiring three time estimates for each task. It demonstrates this approach here, using the Lox Brothers project as a case example. Failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) is another example of a method that has been imported into project risk management from reliability and quality engineering, This method is particularly helpful to aviation project managers because it starts by considering possible risk events and then attempts to predict all their possible effects.
