ABSTRACT
As a good strategic thinker and leader one will be curious both about his/her organization and the world outside it and he/she will continually explore them both. In the 1950s and 1960s various countries had reasonable oil reserves at their disposal. The turning off of the oil tap by some producing countries did not have any real impact. The US produced at the peaks of its capacity and the US became more and more dependent on import. In the oil price scenarios and the analysis of possible strategies of oil-producing countries which Shell developed in 1971, the possibility that oil prices would rise was dominant. The credit crisis shows a similar profile to the first oil crisis in 1973, as does the Internet bubble of 2001: events which came as a surprise to many of the main characters, but which had been considered and prepared for by a small number of organizations.
