ABSTRACT
This chapter develops a more realistic model which allows for tradeoffs between current versus future balancing and for buck-passing. It explores the implications of this more realistic model through a case study of the Rhineland and Sudetenland crises of 1936 and 1938. The chapter shows that uncertainty over the specific nature of the change to the balance of power coupled with uncertainty about the relative balance of forces, including uncertainty over the behavior of potential third party allies, is more problematic than uncertainty over intentions. It focuses on the findings of that model by creating a new model which allows for multiple time periods and multiple potential balancers. The chapter also focuses on the relative importance of three types of uncertainty as they relate to balancing: the challenger's type, the relative balance of power, and the relative value of the challenger's move.
