ABSTRACT
Pakistan’s economic growth path has been cyclical, with periods of high economic growth followed by low growth and lacklustre performance. The causes of these stop-go cycles have been subject to much debate and interpreted differently in recent years. An important issue underlying this debate is why the economy has performed much better under periods of military rule than under civilian governments. It also raises the issue of whether the third government of Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif can finally break this cycle and show that civilian governments too are capable of providing economic leadership and prudent economic management that can shift the economy to a higher and sustainable growth path. This chapter looks at Pakistan’s growth patterns during successive periods since independence to explain how and why its economy has been resilient enough to absorb internal and external shocks. It underscores the comparative performance of the civilian and military regimes in terms of absorbing these shocks and sustaining growth even during times of economic recession, and concludes by assessing the viability of the current economic recovery plan and proposing a workable way forward. The relatively poorer economic performance of the civilian regimes is one instrument that the military has often used in the past to dictate or intervene in politics. In public perception as well, the comparatively better economic performance of the military regimes has been an important factor in undermining successive civilian rules. Moreover, the sustainability of the civilian rule is ultimately determined by its success in meeting basic public needs through effective governance and efficient management of the economy. Thus, how well the Sharif government performs in reviving and restructuring the economy may well dictate not just its own political future but also that of democracy in the country. Its efforts to revive the economy have produced some tangible results, but are they enough to realise sustained economic growth? Before we assess whether the present civilian era would or could be any different from previous ones in terms of performance, it is worth reviewing how the economy has evolved since independence and what lessons it entails for overcoming the current economic impasse.
