Conclusions

This conclusion presents some closing thoughts on the key concepts discussed in the preceding chapters of this book. The book examines a diverse collection of views on OPEC behavior and the long run price of oil. Whether OPEC is garnering economic rents because of cooperative behavior is not a matter upon which there is agreement. Professor Adelman characterizes OPEC as a loosely cooperating oligopoly, while Professor Teece postulates that a target revenue perspective explains OPEC behavior. Traditional economic factors related to supply and demand suggest that OPEC's production levels and market share may well decline throughout this century. Hence, future market conditions indicate that linkage' might be made to work in reverse the United States and other consumers might continue to purchase OPEC output in exchange for political favors in the Mideast. The Energy Modeling Forum's participants expect conventional supplies of oil to begin to decline during the 1980s.