ABSTRACT

This chapter examines how acceleration and deceleration of the Chinese economy influences the Thai economy and explores the sensitivity of Thailand's exports and imports with respect to China's business cycle. It compares the trade elasticities among major trade partners: China, Japan, United States (US), and ASEAN countries. ASEAN business cycles are synchronized through regional trade linkages. China rising has caused a shift in global trade patterns, with China dominating Western markets at the expense of ASEAN countries. The exchange rate is a factor contributing to the rising number of Chinese tourists in Thailand, but not for European and Japanese tourists. It is evident that China's real Gross domestic product increased rapidly after embracing the market economy. Thailand's three largest export markets are the US, China, and Japan. The strength and weakness of the Chinese economy exerts impact directly on Thailand's exports, and also indirectly as the rest of world demands fewer imports from Thailand.