ABSTRACT
This chapter examines structural and situational theories of democratization by linking government and opposition ethnic elites to their non-elite group members. It offers a far more specific assessment of multi-ethnicity and democratization. The implications for democratization are twofold: first, with respect to the representativeness of the government, democratization would imply the certain end to the rule of Bashar al-Assad's minority government, but Ghana's encompassing power-sharing coalition has been able to embrace democracy without risking its access to power. Where power-sharing arrangements guarantee certain elites government positions independent of electoral results as, for example, in Bosnia-Herzegovina or Lebanon, democratic accountability is difficult if not impossible to attain. Ethnic minority regimes simply have no chance of winning future elections held under majority rule. The chapter also suggests that multi-ethnic regimes should be more likely to democratize than would mono-ethnic governments. The GWF models also assess authoritarian institutional accounts of regime stability.
