ABSTRACT
This chapter estimates the joint probability of minister and leader deposition, conditional on their respective times in office and other covariates, in order to test the game theory model's hypotheses relevant to ministerial change in democracies. The results of the game theory model indicate that in presidential democracies, leaders dismiss incompetent ministers and keep competent ones in the cabinet. The evidence does confirm the expectations about ministerial deposition in democratic parliamentary systems. The chapter explores some additional variables that might determine the likelihood of the deposition of a minister of foreign affairs. It also explores the relationship between ministerial competence and ministerial deposition across democratic countries, both presidential and parliamentary. In parliamentary democracies, prime ministers are subject to the confidence of parliament and their party colleagues, who may replace them with a competent minister who can keep the party in government, although with a different leader.
