ABSTRACT
Introduction This chapter focuses on factors in society that can neither be attributed to the economic system (see Chapter 2) nor focus on the state (see Chapter 3). Within the adaptive capacities framework, there are two factors in particular that stand out. The first is inequality in society and the second is the skills to adapt to changing circumstances, such as knowledge, skilled personnel and available technologies. Case studies of resource-scarce cases and the conflict literature in general also emphasize inequality with a particular focus on the following three dimensions: economic inequality, inequality in terms of political power between different groups and gender inequality. While adaptive capacities include many of the factors that have been discussed in previous chapters such as functioning institutions and economic resources, this chapter focuses on adaptation skills, which are less prevalent in the research on conflict but a key factor in research on adaptation to climate change. Three aspects are crucial to adapt to dire environmental circumstances: access to knowledge, trained personnel and access to technology. These arguments lead to eight different conditions: economic inequality, economic inequality between groups, inequality in access to political power between groups, gender inequality, access to science and technology, tertiary education, access to agricultural research and brain drain, i.e. the emigration of skilled personnel. I analyse these conditions using a fsQCA of 30 countries with low levels of freshwater or low levels of arable land (see Chapter 1 for details on the method and case selection). The analysis shows two necessary conditions for conflict: low levels of tertiary education and high levels of uneven development between groups. These necessary conditions are reflected in the key pathways to conflict: low levels of tertiary education or high levels of uneven development between groups are a sufficient condition for conflict. There are also two pathways to peace: high levels of tertiary education or a combination of high technology levels and low levels of uneven development are a sufficient condition for peace. Therefore, the results find high conflict-mitigating effects of adaptive skills and an important role for socio-economic inequality between groups rather than individuals.
