ABSTRACT
So far, this book has explored different theoretical arguments explaining the causes of conflict and peace and how these theories apply to resource-scarce countries. Chapter 2 focused on economic theories, linking development, dependence on exports and natural resources and diversification to conflict. The analysis found two main pathways to conflict: least developed countries (characterized by high levels of agriculture and low levels of oil) and high levels of oil combined with low levels of exports are sufficient conditions for conflict. The analysis found two main sufficient pathways for peace: low levels of agriculture combined with high levels of exports and low levels of agriculture combined with low levels of oil and poverty. These results support arguments linking the level of development to conflict and arguments that countries that are integrated into the global economy are peaceful. Chapter 3 focused on state-based explanations, concentrating on various aspects of state capacities. The analysis found one main sufficient pathway for conflict, which combined high levels of authoritarianism with low levels of the rule of law. The analysis of the peace outcome also found one main pathway combining high levels of the rule of law with low corruption levels. Both outcomes support arguments that link neopatrimonialism to conflict. Finally, Chapter 4 focused on social factors as causes of conflict and applied arguments relating to inequality and adaptive capacities. The analysis of the conflict outcome found two main pathways: low levels of tertiary education or high levels of uneven development between groups. The analysis of the peace outcome also found two pathways: high levels of tertiary education or high levels of access to science and technology combined with low levels of uneven development between groups. Both results highlight the importance of adaptive skills as well as the impact of economic inequality between groups.
