ABSTRACT
This chapter deals with the kinds of problems associated with trends in consumption, supply, and price of the minerals discussed in this volume. It considers the nearby as well as the farther off future, up until the end of the century (which, at this point, is more accurately regarded as medium than long term). It also considers only “probable” events, even though it allows for a broad range of confidence (more strictly, “nonconfidence”) regarding what is probable. The next chapter, by contrast, focuses on the more or less improbable events–”contingencies”–that have the potential for producing problems should the events actually occur. Because it is relatively futile to try to estimate the probability of such contingencies very far ahead, the horizon for chapter 9 is “short-term”–to approximately 1985.
