ABSTRACT

To do that, the campaign typically divides the electorate into three categories: (1)  support for the candidate, (2) support for the opposition, and (3) swing voters. The crucial element of this division is the identification of the opposition’s support-voters who are unlikely to support your candidate regardless of what happens during the campaign. Those subgroups are eliminated from campaign targeting, thus reducing the cost of voter communication. Almost equally important is your candidate’s own core support, voters who will stick with the candidate regardless of campaign events. In most cases, core support for or against a candidate is based on partisan allegiances. Party identification is more stable than any other political attitude (Abramson & Ostrom, 1991; Green & Palmquist, 1994). Further, candidates who focus on issues important to their party have an advantage at the polls (Benoit, 2007).