ABSTRACT
Proudley, 2007 citing McDavitt, 1998). Ideally, ensemble-based operational flood management systems should reflect the differing needs different operational functions, such as controlling reservoirs, releasing flood warnings, and triggering flood defense measures, have for varying extents of forecast accuracy and lead times (Dietrich et al., 2009). Total discharge volume forecasts are valuable to lake managers and hydropower dam operators. For flood planning and relief, the timing of peak flow and volume of peak discharge are key (Zappa et al., 2013). Reservoir management and early warning systems for potential extreme flood events make use of medium-range forecasts with lead times of 3-5 days. Flood alerts are delivered, and flood defense measures are initiated, based on short to very short-range forecasts that include detailed information about peak time, peak discharge and possible inundation areas, and into which observed data can be assimilated. Hydrological uncertainty is a critical consideration in short-range forecasting (Schumann et al., 2011).
