ABSTRACT
The continuing absence of an Arab democracy is a striking anomaly, the principal exception to the globalization of democracy. Maybe countries such as Egypt, Jordan, Morocco, and Yemen are not democracies because they are not yet economically developed. Yet this argument fails once one compares the development levels of Arab and non-Arab states. The most common assumption about the Arab democracy deficit is that it must have something to do with religion or culture. Two key pillars of Arab authoritarianism are political. The unfavorable geopolitical situation confronting Arab democracy extends well beyond the overwhelming factor of oil, though oil drives much of the major powers' interest in the region. The biggest game changer would be a prolonged, steep decline in world oil prices. When the global revolution in energy technology hits with full force, finally breaking the oil cartel, it will bring a decisive end to Arab political exceptionalism.
