ABSTRACT
In the spring of 2007, the world’s most important multilateral institution convened a special debate on the impact of climate change, discussing the links between resource scarcity, (under)development and perceived rising conflict, especially in least developed countries. The French Ambassador stated that “the Security Council cannot ignore the threats to international security caused by global warming”,2 referring to Africa where a deadly cocktail of low-productivity agriculture, uncontrollable migration flows and global warming would impact hardest on those least able to cope. The German representative joined the chorus: “We can imagine how water scarcity – as has been mentioned by many representatives – as well as scarcity of food and fertile land could contribute to driving conflict. The countries most vulnerable to environmental stress factors are small island states, low-lying coastal nations and countries in arid and semi-arid areas. . . . As early as 2020, up to 250 million people in Africa are projected to suffer from increased lack of water due to climate change.”3 UK Foreign Secretary Margaret Beckett mentioned an unprecedented menace the earth is now facing, necessitating a new paradigm: “Climate change is transforming the way that we think about security.”4
