ABSTRACT

The futures of forests are increasingly uncertain, due to effects of multiple interacting factors, such as climate change, globalization, technical transformations, and associated policy and societal responses. This chapter offers a brief overview of methods applied in environmental futures studies. It focuses on different forms of scenario analysis, and describes a framework for scenario analysis. In its approximately fifty-year history, scenario analysis has developed into a methodology that, when correctly used, can display a multitude of possible futures and alternative pathways for future development. The chapter discusses the use of quantitative and qualitative approaches in scenario analysis. A current challenge in scenario analysis research is to find better methods to merge quantitative and qualitative analysis to combine the strengths of the two approaches. The chapter deals with 'normative elements' in environmental future studies, i.e. desired ecological and/or socio-economic conditions, in contrast to non- or less normative contextual analyses.