ABSTRACT
This chapter provides a brief historical overview of futures studies' development and connections to the Swedish forest arena's changing relationship with the future. Futures studies have a long tradition in the forest-based sector, and so-called forest sector outlook studies have been conducted regularly since the 1950s. The models used in these studies offer efficient means to unveil the past and present structures, particularly of markets for forest goods and products, although when used to generate long-term projections they generally neglect the possibility of structural changes. Another type of futures studies involves scenario analysis of the effects of forest management regimes. Such studies are increasingly common; a recent review identified 129 that examined management scenarios in Europe published during the last ten years. The review showed that forest management scenarios are mostly simple, quantitative, and non-participatory in nature, but that there recently has been a shift towards longer spatial and temporal scales.
