ABSTRACT
This chapter argues that an understanding of how land 'moves' over time can provide insights into global and local economic development. It is proposed that land in general, and farmland in particular, serves as an economic barometer. Farmland values and uses can indicate both national wealth and local economic health. The chapter shows that agricultural use of land is not the source of higher prices for farmland; it is potential urban use that is pushing up farmland prices. It began by showing that, in theory, the land in use for agricultural production is a function of productive quality, location, and relative profitability. The uncertainty in the global land substitution process comes from differences in land qualities and productivities over locations. If the productivity of American land exiting agriculture is higher than the productivity of land entering production in another country, then the substitution rate will require more than one acre elsewhere for each American acre.
