ABSTRACT
The published Russian defense budget is an inadequate guide to the country’s total defense spending because many items which would be incorporated in any Western calculation are ignored. The true level of outlays last year was approaching twice the acknowledged figure.
Despite an increase of around 16 percent after inflation in the last 2 years, overall defense expenditure in 2000 was well under 40 percent of that in 1992 and just 15 percent of that of the Soviet Union at its 1988 peak. Moreover, last year almost three-fifths of the money was spent on personnel, leaving a hopelessly inadequate level of funding for weapons research, development, procurement and maintenance. As orders for new weapons have dried up, defense industries have been hard hit and many, perhaps most, are now by any normal measure bankrupt.
Russia devotes well over 5 percent of its gross domestic product (GDP) to defense, twice the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) average, but because of inadequate accounting procedures, both the political and military leadership is of the view that the burden is under 3 percent. Total defense outlays in 2000 were equivalent to around $50 billion, the third largest in the world.
The Russian Government hopes to double Defense Ministry spending per serviceman by 2005 and to triple it by 2010. Despite plans for substantial cuts in the size of the armed forces, these goals are unlikely to be realized. The overall weapons inventory 162will fall during the rest of this decade. Only thereafter will capability gradually improve.
