ABSTRACT
What sets the United States apart from other developed countries is not our high crime rates. What sets the United States apart is our distinctively high rates of lethal violence.
(Zimring and Hawkins 1997, 59) We suggest that long-term trends in crime rates can be accounted for primarily by three
factors. First, shifts in the age structure of the population will increase or decrease the proportion of persons-young males-in the population who are likely to be
temperamentally aggressive and to have short time horizons. Second, changes in the benefits of crime (the accessibility, density, and the value of criminal opportunities) and in
the cost of crime (the risk of punishment and the cost of being both out of school and out of work) will change the rate at which crimes occur, especially property crimes. . . . Third,
broad social and cultural changes in the level and intensity of society’s investment (via families, schools, churches, and the mass media) in inculcating an internalized commitment
to self-control will affect the extent to which individuals at risk are willing to postpone gratification, accept as equitable the outcomes of others, and conform to rules.
