ABSTRACT
This chapter reflects the author's viewpoint advocating for the empirically based scientific investigation of prediction as it relates to critical incidents. It concerns perceptual biases that affect subjective predictions, and how these are potentially relevant to an understanding of critical incidents. The chapter reviews the considerable difficulties in predicting both the onset and evolution of critical incidents, based on the premise that such prediction is possible within limits and desirable because it provides opportunities to prevent and mitigate the negative outcomes that often coincide with critical incidents. It discusses the issue of prediction and divides it into two general topics: empirically or scientifically based and intuitive predictions. Perhaps the best-known qualitative method for analyzing qualitative data is so-called grounded theory. Higher than expected probabilities for rare events may occur because risk models omit important factors and interactions that are too complicated to incorporate.
