It is just conunon sense that unemployment leads to crime. People unable or unwilling to make money in the legitimate economy tum to the illegitimate economy. If the legitimate economy falters--due to a downturn in the business cycle or to changing economic onditions--we should expect more people to tum to crime to make up the lost income. The notion is simple, plausible, and in keeping with most people's experience. But if one is to take the bulk of expert economic opinion at face value, it is also wrong.