ABSTRACT
Causal claims such as (1) “HPV types 16 and 18 are responsible for 70% of cervical cancers,” (2) “Antipsychotic medications are effective in treating acute psychosis and reducing the risk of future psychotic episodes,” (3) “Keeping weight under control, exercising, eating healthily, and not smoking prevent diabetes type-2,” or (4) “Hal’s exposure to vinyl chloride monomer caused his angiosarcoma” are widely used in medicine, epidemiology, public health, and elsewhere. Arguably, this is for good reason: causal claims allow us to explain medical outcomes, both at the population level (claim 1) and the individual level (claim 4); they can help to predict outcomes (claim 2); they underwrite treatment decisions (claim 2) and public health policies (claim 3); and they can help to attribute responsibility (join claim 4 to the claim that Hal’s employer behaved negligently by exposing him)—all important aims of the health sciences and beyond.
