ABSTRACT
At first glance, each presidential nomination contest appears to be unique. Folklore develops on how certain instances or decisions were crucial to the battle being waged. One example from the 2008 Democratic contest is the frequent retelling of the events from a Manchester, New Hampshire, coffee shop when an audience member asked Senator Hillary Clinton how she could continue to campaign given the ongoing adversity (and a loss in the Iowa caucuses). Clinton replied, “It’s not easy. . . . I couldn’t do it if I just didn’t passionately believe it was the right thing to do. . . I just don’t want to see us fall backwards.” 1 Did this wistful (or as depicted in some media accounts tearful) response turn the tide in the 2008 New Hampshire primary, leading to Clinton’s comeback and setting up the long battle between Clinton and Senator Barack Obama? Did Howard Dean’s scream at the conclusion of his pep talk to supporters after losing the 2004 Iowa caucuses doom his campaign? At other times, “Monday morning quarterbacks” criticize candidates for flaws in their strategies. Did Romney in 2012 make a mistake in ignoring the caucuses in Minnesota and Colorado and the nonbinding primary in Missouri on February 7? Santorum’s sweep of these events rescued his campaign, giving him momentum and increasing his fundraising totals, while a defeat in these states would probably have ended his candidacy. 2 Still others ask whether media bias distorts the outcome, such as questioning whether undue favorable coverage of McCain in 2000 or Obama in 2008 helped them gain additional support at the polls. 3
Presidential nomination battles have lots of intricacies, because so many factors are involved: numerous candidates, primaries, and caucuses across the 50 states (and several territories); different rules for the two parties; an everchanging calendar; and the impact of new technology. Each year a new group of candidates decides to seek their party’s presidential nomination. Some are well known, some are not. Some have a better chance of winning the nomination bid than others. Neither a uniform set of primary rules nor a standardized calendar of dates exist, because primary dates and rules are governed by the national parties, state parties, and state governments. These three groups often have competing rather than complementary interests. Presidential campaigns
also are altered as candidates learn to exploit the latest technological advances. In 2000, McCain opened up the internet as a fundraising tool. In 2004 Howard Dean exploited social networking to bring his supporters to key campaign events. In 2012, internet fundraising and social networking were key components of all the candidates’ strategies.
