ABSTRACT
Transnational illicit markets are deeply embedded within legal trade systems and thus should be affected by shifting market conditions. Applying a stochastic actor-oriented model (SAOM), this study tests whether variation in illicit market opportunity could account for changing relations within the small arms trade. Measures of market accessibility changes in export activity, reporting transparency and the percent of the labour force that is armed outperformed measures of weapon availability with the exception of involvement in armed conflict. As the US-led involvement in a decade-long armed conflict in the Middle East begins to de-escalate, a weapons supermarket will undoubtedly follow, injecting a surplus of second-hand arms into the market. Due to this expected influx, research is needed to better understand the intersection between legal and illicit trade structures. Legal and illicit trade activity appears to be closely intertwined, though the direction of influence remains unclear. Complicating the investigation of shifting conditions is the endogenous nature of trade.
