ABSTRACT
Jordan's exceptional growth throughout the second half of the 1970s was the result of a careful adjustment to the Gulf countries' sudden increase in wealth after the first oil boom. This success was nevertheless fragile, as revealed by the effects of the deteriorating regional situation since 1982. In the middle term, in other words, up to the end of the 1980s, this situation is likely to remain depressed, or even get worse. At the same time, the large new Jordanian industries, aimed at a world market, cannot alone act as a relay station providing an adequate substitute for regional capital flows. Even if a crisis scenario cannot be dismissed, it seems extremely improbable. This necessary shift in economic policy is desirable, first, to put Jordan in a position to participate in a subsequent phase of recovery and, second, to give its economy a wider productive base and thus reduce its excessive dependence on the regional economic climate.
