ABSTRACT

Hypothetically, there are four circumstances under which external factors could influence the sub-national level of regime transition. First, it is likely to happen if, economically and socially, parts of the country which encounter the strongest external influence are different from the capital city or central regions, where national politics is decided. Second, in some cases foreign actors consciously target particular territories attempting to stimulate democratization. Third, external factors could play an important role in affecting transition at the sub-national level in case some of the regions are more active in developing their foreign policy and international economic relations than others. Fourth, there is also an indirect channel one has to take into account, external factors could influence transition at the sub-national level indirectly by affecting political development at national level. If external influences are present at the sub-national level in Russia, however, they most likely are related to linkages and not to leverages in the terminology of Levitsky and Way.