Conclusion

The UAE weathered the Arab Spring upheaval that spread across much of the Middle East in 2011 and has become deeply enmeshed in regional geopolitics from Libya to Yemen by way of Egypt, as well as increasingly active in debates over the reshaping of aspects of international governance. Emirati policymakers emphasize their projection of leadership in issues of sustainable development and the Green Economy as well as the innovative and entrepreneurial potential of a young country and youthful society. Initiatives such as the 2020 World Expo in Dubai and the planned Emirates Mars Mission will ensure that the UAE remains firmly in the global spotlight as it commemorates a half-century of independence in 2021. Barely a week goes by without a new eye-catching headline from Abu Dhabi or Dubai designed to cultivate and reinforce the image of a confident and assertive actor in regional and international affairs. Indeed, the very fact that the UAE has endured and, in myriad ways, matured as

a federation is itself a mark of considerable success when set against the benchmark of other regional federal “experiments” of the 1960s and the generally low expectations of British officials at the time. The struggles of the 1970s and early 1980s over the constitutional makeup and the demarcation of emirate-level powers (and boundaries) has been gradually superseded by a degree of political consensus and a clearer and distinct notion of Emirati identity. Simultaneously, the charismatic and highly personalized structure of leadership of Sheikh Zayed bin Sultan Al Nahyan and the other “founding fathers” of 1971, based largely along tribal lines and direct access to the ruler, has been replaced by the growth of institutions and entities, many of which are today globally recognized. It is not for nothing that the UAE and, in particular, Dubai and Abu Dhabi, has become the destination of choice for aspirant young men and women from across the Arab world and further afield. A number of questions and issues will define the next phase of domestic and

international development in the UAE at both the federal and emirate levels.

Although Sheikh Zayed died in November 2004 his legacy continues to loom large throughout the UAE but an entire generation of Emiratis will soon lack any direct memory of his long and benevolent rule. The first decade of the “postZayed” transition was marked by the sharing of power among many of his sons and of influence with Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum in Dubai. However, developments in 2015 and 2016 appeared to indicate a coalescing of both power and influence around the Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi, Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan. This became apparent in the shakeup of federal government positions in February 2016, which generated international headlines over the appointment of Ministers of Happiness, Tolerance, and Youth and was also a cost-cutting exercise in the overall number of government ministries as the UAE, like its Gulf neighbors, responded to low oil prices and sharp falls in revenue. However, the most significant aspect of the recent leadership changes was that,

after years of exercising discreet political influence, often from behind the scenes, Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan visibly cemented his position as the de facto Head of State and became far less reticent about acting as such in the continuing absence of his older half-brother, the President of the UAE, Sheikh Khalifa bin Zayed Al Nahyan, who had remained out of the public eye since suffering a stroke in January 2014. What happened both in the federal reshuffle and in the restructuring of government and state-owned institutions, such as the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) was therefore not so much a power play as the endgame in a succession process that has been at least a decade in the making but which, until 2015, occurred more in the shadows than in the spotlight of policymaking.1