ABSTRACT

Chronic non-communicable diseases account for over 60% of deaths globally, and share four main behavioral risk factors: smoking, excess alcohol consumption, physical inactivity, and aspects of diet. We review the use of system dynamics modeling to inform the prevention of these diseases, and describe four case studies aimed at smoking cessation, alcohol control, and the prevention of type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease. We conclude by making recommendations on how to better realize the potential for improving population health afforded by system dynamics models and similar methodologies.