ABSTRACT
The two previous chapters have demonstrated that both the geography of voting in England in 1983 and the geography of changing party preferences there between 1979 and 1983 are highly predictable. Using a combination of independent variables representing the socio-economic characteristics of constituencies, their regional location and the electoral context, it has been possible to account for up to 85 per cent of the inter-constituency variation. Many of the major residuals from the regression models can be accounted for in terms of either particular local partisan loyalties (e.g. the ‘Sheffield effect’ in South Yorkshire/ North Derbyshire, reflected also in the nature and policies of many of the local governments there) or local circumstances pertaining to the 1983 election.
