ABSTRACT
As we have seen, populations have not been static in the past, and will surely not be static in the future, but what will be the direction of change, of fertility, mortality and migration, and of all these taken together? A central argument of this book has been that population change will be affected by development, broadly defined, and will be affected by any population policies and planning, both direct or indirect. Any projected population trends need to be reviewed in the context of possible development trends. We now turn, therefore, to consider the future of population into the twenty-first century and do so primarily at a global scale. This allows the analysis to be systematic and to build on the models and issues that have been raised in previous chapters, for this examination cannot be based on speculation about some vague population future, but on formal population projections, the bases for which are rooted in some of the models, theories and experiences we have considered. The global order at the beginning of the twenty-first century is distinctly fragile and uncertain, with regional wars, terrorism and civil unrest, with major economic rivalries and global restructuring through globalisation, with long-term threats posed by global warming and environmental non-sustainability; and trends and patterns of population change will inevitably be affected by all of these. Despite this uncertainty, a solid scientific basis is available to explore the demographic future with formal population projections.
