ABSTRACT
The presidency of George W. Bush began in January 2001. Initially, the Bush administration encountered a relatively stable international environment, with the USA as the undisputed hegemon and no apparent direct threat to its security. An emerging China, with a clear disadvantage in terms of military technology and still negotiating World Trade Organization (WTO) membership, was not in a position to challenge the USA at the global level. Russia was still recovering from the disintegration of the Soviet Union, and its new, more assertive president, Vladimir Putin, had only been in power for just over a year. The al-Aqsa intifada (or second intifada) had began a few months earlier, but peace talks between Israel and the Palestinian Authority were taking place and held the promise of a breakthrough. Thus, the situation in the Middle East was relatively stable. In East Asia, the rise of China had undoubtedly made the Asian giant one of the two key players in regional politics, along with the USA. Meanwhile, relations between China and its neighbours had steadily improved. Memories of the second Taiwan Strait crisis were fading and disagreements over the South China Sea islands were being dealt with through diplomacy. ASEAN+3, involving all Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) member states plus China, Japan and South Korea, had been institutionalized in 1999, thus helping further to reduce possible tensions in the region. It was equally important for Washington that its central role in the region was not being challenged. Hence, the first few months of the Bush presidency were marked by stability in foreign affairs. The situation changed dramatically on 11 September 2001 (hereafter 9/11).
Such terrorist attacks by Al-Qaeda made Muslim terrorism a central concern to the USA and the West. The subsequent invasion of Afghanistan changed the politics of the Greater Middle East, and ultimately made an impact on the whole international system. Terrorism affected the international relations of East Asia as well. Countries in the region were not direct targets of Muslim terrorists, with the exception of Indonesia. However, the threat of terrorism affected US policy towards the region. The USA tried to engage East Asian
countries in multilateral efforts to combat terrorism. The activities of North Korea, with regard to countries in theMiddle East perceived to be supportive of terrorism, such as Iran or Libya, became a key focus of US efforts to combat the proliferation of WMD that could fall in the hands of terrorists. Therefore, on 29 January 2002 Bush (2002a) included North Korea in an ‘axis of evil’ of rogue states that supported terrorism and were in possession of WMD. The tactics used by North Korea to bargain with the USA shifted
throughout this period, as will be discussed below. Initially, Pyongyang sought to continue with the modified Agreed Framework regime inherited from the Clinton years, failing to recognize the change in US policy following the inauguration of the Bush administration. Concurrently, North Korea declined to align itself with China in spite of this change in policy and Beijing’s increasing power. This suggests a lack of understanding on the part of the Kim Jong Il government, which was unable to recognize the changing international environment and adjust its behaviour accordingly.
