chapter  8
Pages 11

This book was written to help shed light on political trends within what remains the single largest demographic group within the American electorate: non-Hispanic whites. The political behavior of this group in the coming years will largely determine the political future of the United States. This is not to say that whites are any more or less “important” than other groups within the electorate; in a close presidential election, small swings in vote choice within any sizable racial or ethnic group can determine the winner. However, all present evidence indicates that the Democratic Party is going to maintain its sizable advantage among non-whites for the foreseeable future. Given that minorities, on average, have more progressive policy preferences than whites, this is perfectly rational on their part. How whites will behave in the years ahead may be less easy to predict. Is 59 percent of the white vote the most a Republican presidential candidate can ever expect, or is there a possibility for further Republican growth among whites? While no study of this type can reliably predict what will happen in the decades ahead, the preceding analysis revealed a number of useful fi ndings.