ABSTRACT
Probability matching, where a participant’s choice frequency matches the probability of an alternative, is the modal response strategy in many probabilistic choice tasks. According to traditional norms, the probability matching strategy results in a sub-optimal payoff, compared to the utility maximizing strategy of always choosing the most probable alternative. Some researchers, however, have argued that probability matching is evolutionarily adaptive in certain environments and evidence suggests that use of the matching strategy is sensitive to different kinds of feedback and incentives. The chapter explores the roles of working memory and task context in probability matching. Analytic processing requires working memory resources; thus taxing these resources with a secondary task should reduce the use of the maximizing strategy in the probabilistic choice task. Heuristic processing requires a meaningful, socially relevant context; thus an enriched context should increase the use of the matching strategy in this task.
